The Most Recent End Of The World

According to previous job descriptions, I have some experience in emergency operations of several kinds (I’ll keep details to myself since many of you know that stuff already and the internet already knows too much). Here’s my perspective on the current virus outbreak and how it can be somewhat managed:

1. Frequent hand-washing and refraining from touching the face are good moves. Using disposable gloves is also a good idea, as is social distancing whenever practical. Masks and buying lots of toilet paper are mistakes; the mask will not prevent a virus from getting through, but will help an infected person NOT infect someone that’s clear of the virus by containing the cough droplets. Also, intestinal problems are not present during most infections so the panic buying of toilet paper is misguided.

Edit: Information is not clear but it looks like masks could have some positive effect even if not 100% reliable, and on the toilet paper issue I've been told by a grocer that most of the cheap TP comes from China, where supply chain disruption has happened. So not all the TP went away from hoarding, and masks could be a good thing even in less effective contexts.

2. Many people appear to be buying more groceries than usual, perhaps since they’re not going to restaurants and bars so much. From what I’ve seen, the supply chain for produce and other foods is functioning well, but still needs overnight restocking. This is an opportunity for those of us that have earthquake kits (on the West coast), tornado kits (in the Great Plains) and hurricane kits (East coast and gulf coast) to restock and discard out-of-date canned goods, expired and leaking batteries and so forth. And in many areas take-out service or drive-through is still done at coffee houses and restaurants. And it may be a first that Texas restaurants are allowed to deliver alcoholic beverages with food orders, a measure not previously allowed in that US state.

3. Although much of the economy is being upset, many things still function. Power systems and telephone/internet transmission is good. Fuel oil, diesel and gasoline supplies are plentiful. Car repair places are still doing good business where I am (central US). The medicine I need is easy to get. Water/sewer service is unimpeded. And the weather has been mild. It could be worse.

4. The internet is rising to the occasion with not only new resource pages, but with the ones that already existed such as www.cdc.gov and www.ready.gov at least for the US.

5. Finally, remember that corona-family virii have been around for some time, and the infectious disease experts have been to this rodeo before (I think about ten times in the last 25 years or so for the US). If recent Chinese reports are accurate, the Hunan area is seeing a drop in need for bed space, treatment, therapeutic medicine and so forth, suggesting that the curve is already headed down at their locations. And early fast-spread statistics from Italy are something that I think could be explained by the close-in conversation habit that Italians consider normal. This effect would not apply to most other societies and I’ve seen at least one report that suggests that the Italians now are doing better than other European countries at social distancing practices.